According to former US Treasury Secretary and Harvard Economics Professor Larry Summers: Soft landing of the US economy is highly improbable; there is a significant likelihood of a recession... the biggest disruptors are Russian natural gas and oil shipments, and the nationalization or forced selling of Russian energy assets held by energy major multinationals. Reuters reported that the global oil supply disruptions may be up to 5 million barrels per day...
Early into the conflicts, the EU banking regulator warned about the risk of a banking solvency crisis. The Western financial world is not known for reducing leverage on its own in an orderly manner... Another sign is the inverted US Treasury yield curve, usually suggesting solvency issues within 18~24 months as financial institutions are selling or shorting US Treasurys (including those they hold on behalf of customers) to raise cash.
According to Harvard Professor and Former Dean of the Kennedy School Professor Graham Allison (an expert on the Cuban missile crisis who advises the US Government): Putin has nothing to lose by deploying tactical nukes... it is fair to ask whether Western policymakers have thought through the risk of a conflict spinning out of control.
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